Perhaps we can expect for his goal-scoring to regress back near his natural mean. But, does that mean much if the player is getting kicked around at even-strength? To get a better picture of what the team has done historically with Semin on the ice and is doing in , we can pull out goal rates, scoring chance rates, and shot-attempt rates.
Ideally, we like to see that the team in question is better with the player on the ice than off of the ice — a positive relative number would signify as much. If, theoretically, Semin has depreciated as a player, one would expect to see it in the below graph:.
And there is our answer. This year? On-ice save percentages are swamped by random variance , and there is virtually no evidence that a forward can control the rate at which saves are made on a year-to-year basis. Sort of like Parise, Semin is a left right shooting left winger.
Like Parise, Semin will be 28 at the start of the season. With Parise off the market, Semin is the de facto top forward left among unrestricted free agents. Just like Parise. Given his position on the market, I highly doubt he's going to be interested in a pay cut or another one year deal. He could - and, for his sake, should - get a long term deal. Should the Devils consider giving Semin an offer?
Or should they pass on him? After the jump, I take a closer look at Semin's past five seasons to get some answers. However, the production hasn't always followed with the skillset. The following numbers are from NHL. When people point to the fact that Semin can be as productive as Parise once was, they're likely recalling and Semin was racking up the points, he made things happen on what was an excellent power play, and he was just bombing shots on net.
So he missed quite a few games, he still justified his position. However, the last two seasons tell a more cautionary tale. His point production dropped, both overall and on the power play. The power play numbers falling in may be a result of the Washington power play not always killing it; but an overall drop of 30 points raises an eyebrow. He played more games last season and still managed at the same total.
As a partial quick defense, his total of 54 points was the second most on the team in Now, the points are one thing. In , notice that his shooting percentage dropped to His numbers could have suffered more by bad luck and a less successful power play Aside: the Capitals finished 21st in success rate at I am concerned about the shots dropping. It's no coincidence that when Semin was firing more than 3.
He's got an excellent shot, so you want him to shoot. Yet, in these past two seasons, his shooting range dropped to about 3 per game to about 2. That tells me he's not getting the opportunities to generate points like he used to, and that could be a big issue going forward. I wonder if the coaching change along with his place in the lineup contributed more to that than any decline in performance.
Devils fans who want him in New Jersey should hope it's the former. Let's dig deeper into Semin's performances with the underlying stats tabulated at Behind the Net.
These numbers are all from 5-on-5, non-empty net situations, which are the most common in hockey. These will give an insight to the level of competition Semin played, whether more offense happened when he was on the ice, and how both compared with other forward on his team 20 games played minimum.
First, Semin plays top six minutes at forward at even strength and has done so since the season. Second, Corsi Relative to Quality of Competition is a good measurement of competition. In terms of individual values, Semin has seen a drop in competition between and , an increase for two straight seasons, and then a big drop in His rank among other forwards on his team tell us more about where the coaches he's had stack up.
He's actually been bumped up to top minutes in and in , which makes his season even more impressive. What's concerning is that he faced much weaker opponents in , yet his production or his shot rate didn't improve compared to a far tougher Usually, I would expect players to do even better against weaker opponents, but that didn't happen with Semin for one reason or another.
Third, Semin surprised me by having some excellent Corsi rates. Corsi is the summation of all shooting attempts for and against, on-ice Corsi is just the rate of that sum when the player is on the ice. Higher numbers are better and Semin's are, well, great.
He's been among the best players on Washington for the last four seasons and in the top three in the last two seasons. When combined with the quality of competition, his and seasons tell me that he may be able to drive the play to some degree. By the same token, his drop from to appears to be evidence against his ability to drive the play well.
Then again, Semin still finished third on the Capitals in on-ice Corsi rate in , so that may be a larger indictment of the team. PDO is just the sum of the team's shooting percentage and save percentage on the ice. Overtime, this will regress to a player's true value, so it's a quick way to see if a player benefited or suffered from bad luck from others. Sasha does not speak very good English, and in fact gave his first English interview only this past September.
This language barrier could cause issues with his new coaches and teammates. Sasha's attitude has already caused issues with his teammates. Former Capital Matt Bradley, a respected veteran, bashed Alex Semin in a radio interview during the summer of , saying Alex "just doesn't care. And Semin's reputation for being enigmatic is well-earned. Alex inexplicably abandoned the Capitals during the season to play in the KHL in his home country of Russia, before returning to the NHL the next season.
But even when Alex did return to the team, he showed an unwillingness to commit to the Capitals on a long-term basis. He instead preferred to sign a one-year contract extension.
Alexander Semin's offensive skills can provide an NHL team with a significant reward. But his liabilities pose too high of a risk. Enjoy our content? Join our newsletter to get the latest in sports news delivered straight to your inbox! Your sports. Join Newsletter.
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